Analysis of the first phase of voting in up, what is the meaning of the overwhelming vote of muslims
Posted on Feb 11, 2022
By Hem singh
Published in News
The first phase of polling has been held in western Uttar Pradesh. In this election, Yogi Adityanath entered the fray with the formula of eighty-twenty. 80 percent Hindus and 20 percent Muslims are voters. With the help of this formula, he tried to polarize votes. And Akhilesh Yadav entered the fray with more Muslim votes than the social engineering of Jats. And this time the alliance of Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary has kept the BJP candidates somewhat tied. And it seems that he is not able to play independently.
60.17 percent voting in 58 seats in 11 districts
In the first phase, 60.17 per cent polling was recorded in 58 seats in 11 districts of western Uttar Pradesh. These numbers are till 6 pm and voting has been done till 7 pm. So this figure may change now. Last time the voter turnout was 63.5%. This means the turnout is lower than in 2017. Second, out of the 11 districts where polling has taken place, seven are where Muslim voters constitute 25 per cent or more. Among them is Muzaffarnagar district, which has about 41 percent Muslim population. And turnout was one to two percent higher than in 2017.
Last time BJP won 53 seats
Last time BJP won 53 out of 58 seats. Samajwadi Party got 2 seats, BSP 2 and Rashtriya Lok Dal got one seat. However, the voting system in these constituencies looked completely different. Zee News team was present in these seats during voting and we estimate that Muslim voters have voted strongly for these seats. Hindu voters were less enthusiastic.
CM Yogi's Formula Eighty-Twenty
Yogi Adityanath's formula was eighty-twenty. In other words, the BJP wanted to unite the remaining 80 per cent Hindu voters, leaving 20 per cent Muslim voters. But Akhilesh Yadav kept 20 percent Muslim voters together and divided 80 percent Hindu voters into different classes under social engineering and for this he did social engineering in a tremendous way. For example, Muzaffarnagar has a Muslim population of 41 per cent, but Akhilesh Yadav has not fielded a single Muslim candidate for the six assembly seats in the district.
BJP failed to win the hearts of Jat voters!
We expect Muslim voters to vote in favor of Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal. This means that a handful of Muslim voters must have gone to other parties. But most Muslims have voted in favor of the alliance. Apart from Muslims, the opinion of the Jat community also has a good influence in these places. Out of the total 71 seats in western Uttar Pradesh, 29 seats are such that if Muslim and Jat voters vote together for a party, then the victory of that party's candidate is considered certain. And as we told you, Muslim voters have voted in unison. At the same time, BJP has failed to win the hearts of Jat voters. We are making guesses based on what we saw while reporting at Ground Zero.
65% Jat voters voted for Akhilesh Jayant!
Accordingly, about 65 percent Jat voters have voted for the party of Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary. Meanwhile, 35 per cent Jat voters have gone with the BJP. In other words, Akhilesh Yadav seems to have succeeded in social engineering the Muslim and Jat vote banks. In the first phase of voting, Muslim voters remained united but Hindu votes were divided. And if so, then this is good news for Akhilesh Yadav.
Under pressure, BJP did not cut the tickets of the MLAs.
The BJP came under pressure with the BJP MLAs leaving the party and not canceling the tickets of many MLAs. That is, there was no wave against Yogi and BJP. However, there has also been a wave against some MLAs. Out of 58 seats in the first phase, BJP has cut tickets of only 14 MLAs.
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